Resilience, Uncertainty and Complex Decision-Making

在複雜、非線性系統中做深度不確定性下的決策——偏好韌性（動態適應）而非為單一目標做的脆弱最佳化。核心是認知謙卑（「知道自己不懂」是生存底線）、情景規畫、反脆弱性，以及現實約束的推理，尤其在線性預測失效的高波動時代。這是 Paul 反覆回到的母題：面對測不準的世界，用系統韌性取代對確定性的執念。

Decision-making under deep uncertainty in complex, non-linear systems — favouring resilience (dynamic adaptation) over brittle optimisation toward a fixed goal. Draws on epistemic humility (“knowing you don’t know” as a survival floor), scenario planning, antifragility, and reality-constraint reasoning, especially in high-volatility eras where linear prediction fails.